Existing homes sales fall
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing homes sales fell 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June from 5.66 million in May, but are 9.8% higher than the 4.89 million-unit pace in June 2009. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said. “Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.” AR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said softer home sales expected this summer don’t tell the whole story. “Despite these market swings, total annual home sales are rising above 2009 and we’re looking for overall gains again this year as well as in 2011,” she said. “Conditions have become more balanced in much of the country, which is good for both buyers and sellers. However, consumers find it even more challenging to navigate the transaction process, especially for distressed properties, which only underscores the value Realtors® bring to buyers and sellers in this market.”
Most Americans think things will get worse
A nationwide survey from Citigroup shows that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe that the economy has yet to hit bottom, meaning a double-dip recession is expected. The quarterly report, conducted by Hart Research Associates, revealed that 62 percent of people asked were still not counting on a rebound, which is 3-point decline from the March reading and almost as bad as last September’s result of 63 percent. The survey also showed that Americans’ expectations for when the economy will stabilize for their households have been pushed further into the future. Nearly two thirds think that their households will not see a stable financial situation for at least two or three years, it said. On the positive side, Americans’ views on current economic conditions and the outlook for their own personal financial situations are improving or holding steady, the survey said. Twenty-four percent said that the local economy where they live is good or excellent, which is up from 19 percent in March, the report said. “The big question is, could the gloomy news become a self-fulfilling prophesy, prompting consumers to restrain their spending, thus hurting the economic recovery?” he added.
Inventories up, sales down
A NAR practitioner survey shows that first-time buyers purchased 43% of homes in June, down from 46% in May. Investors accounted for 13% of sales in June, little changed from 14% in May; the remaining purchases were by repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 24% in June compared with 25% in May. Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 2.5% to 3.99 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.3-month supply in May. Single-family home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million in June from a level of 4.98 million in May, but are 8.5% above the 4.33 million pace in June 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $184,200 in June, up 1.3% from a year ago. Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 10 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in June in comparison with June 2009. In addition, existing single-family home sales rose in 12 of the 19 areas from a year ago while two were unchanged. Existing condominium and co-op sales slipped 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in June from 680,000 in May, but are 20.5% higher than the 556,000-unit pace in June 2009. The median existing condo price was $180,100 in June.
Bush did it … another perspective
In office 18 months, Obama is still running against the policies of George W. Bush and cites “nearly a decade of not paying for key policies and programs” such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, big tax cuts and a costly Medicare prescription drug program. Bush came to office with a $236 billion budget surplus in 2001, says Obama. “The day I took office, eight years later, America faced a record $1.3 trillion deficit.” But blaming the country’s economic woes on Bush tax cuts and spending is a stretch. It ignores the fact that as recently as 2007, the budget deficit was just $162 billion — long after Bush’s tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 kicked in and spending on the two wars and on the Medicare program was in place. Furthermore, the projected surplus reflected a continuation of the bubble economy of the late 1990s, when the stock market was soaring, high-tech businesses were on a roll and corporate profits were surging. Those surpluses would have evaporated no matter who became president in 2001.
The rise in the annual deficit from $162 billion in 2007 to over $1 trillion now is largely due to collapsing tax revenues from the recession that began in December 2007, and stimulus and bailout spending by both Bush and Obama, said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst at the Heritage Foundation. The Bush tax cuts and other policies are “a convenient scapegoat for past and future budget woes,” he said, but can’t be blamed for today’s trillion-dollar deficits — or future ones. “Over the next 10 years, virtually 100 percent of the rising deficits” will be driven by “entitlement” programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and interest payments on the $13.2 trillion national debt, Riedl said.
Olick – don’t be fooled
“Don’t be fooled by the little uptick in home prices in today’s Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors. Even the always glass-is-half-full chief economist Lawrence Yun made clear several times in the briefing before the report’s release, that he expects home prices to come under significant pressure over the coming months, as inventories rise. The report today showed inventories up 2.5 percent to 3.99 million units. At the current sales pace, that represents an 8.9 month supply. The current sales pace ticked down 5 percent in June, even though those numbers are still under the sway of the home buyer tax credit (remember, EHS represent closings in June, so contracts likely signed in April before the credit expired). But more importantly, the Pending Home Sales Index, which represents contracts signed, fell off a cliff in May, down 30 percent, indicating that closings will be way off as well. Bottom line, experts who follow housing are having a hell of a time predicting just where home prices are headed nationally.”
“A new monthly report, Macro Markets Home Price Expectations, a venture by price guru Robert Shiller, found that the results for 2010 vary widely, anywhere from plus 4.9 percent to minus 12 percent. “In July 60 percent of the panelists projected negative home price growth for 2010,” writes Shiller in the report. The longer-term results, however, were less optimistic. “Although still positive, the average outlook for five-year cumulative home price appreciation fell in July for the second consecutive month, and is now in single-digit territory,” writes Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets Managing Director. “This new consensus suggests a less robust housing recovery scenario – one that, all other things equal, would result in U.S. household wealth by year-end 2014 being about $500 billion less than the level implied by the average of panelist responses just two months ago.”
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Tags: Bush and Obama, Citigroup, distressed properties, Existing homes sales fall, gardena, Gardena Investment, Gardena Investment Property, home buyer tax credit, home sales, invest in real estate, investment property, investors, Macro Markets Home Price Expectations, Medicaid, Medicare, NAR, National Association of Realtors, Obama, Real Estate, Real Estate Investor, Single-family home, Social Security, southern California, southern California investment property, trillion-dollar deficits
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